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1/28/15

Spread Gasoline KM5 (2)

The Gasoline spread (KM5) has done the first move backward:


Chart: Scarr Visual Trading

Now it is time for seasonality´s expected move.

Related post: Spread Gasoline KM5

Wheat - Corn Spread (4): moving stop profit

This spread created with May contracts of Wheat and Corn, continues its bearish trend.

Now that first take profit area has been broken, it is time to move the stop profit.


I will close this operation if trend becomes bullish after a clear change of direction.

Last related post:  Wheat - Corn Spread (3): take profit area

1/26/15

My comments about Cattle on Feed report (Jan. 23, 2015)

Last Cattle on Feed report did not clarify the situation in the Cattle complex:

1- Cattle inventory is 1% higher than a year ago. Not enough to consider it a bearish signal and in line with expectations.

2- Placed on feed during December was 8% lower than a year ago. Quite a bullish signal.

3- Last Cold Storage report (January 22) showed a greater amount of frozen beef (+11%) over last month. A bearish signal for closest Live Cattle maturities.

Main data on Cattle on Feed report January 23, 2015:
Cold Storage report (January 22, 2015):


Anyway, my vision about Live Cattle is more bullish than bearish. Take a look at the number of Cattle placed since October:


Cattle placed in feedlots has been lower in 2014 than in 2013. And 2014 was a very bullish year for Live Cattle.

To complicate things, it seems like large traders are closing their long positions in Live Cattle:



Take a look at my comments about the Cattle on Feed report, December 19, 2014

1/22/15

Spread Feeder Cattle UV5 (3)

This Feeder Cattle spread reached its highest point two days ago:


That highest point matches with seasonal highest point in this spread.

This is a long term commodities futures spread, so I can wait until it becomes negative.

Click to see my entry: Spread Feeder Cattle UV5 (2)

1/20/15

Spread Gasoline KM5

This spread with Gasoline futures (May-June) is reaching a bullish seasonal area:


The Gasoline spread started to turn when Crude Oil stopped at his fall (with high volume):

(Weekly chart)

I expect Crude Oil to make a short term retracement, and Gasoline spread should join its seasonality.

This post may interest you: Situación del crack spread (3)

1/18/15

Wheat - Corn Spread (3): take profit area

The grains spread, Wheat - Corn (May 15), has reached last year´s minimum. It seems like a good place to take partial profits.

Chart: Scarr Visual Trading

In the next Wheat and Corn comparison chart, we can see that wheat´s relative strength against corn has relaxed.


Last related post: Wheat - Corn Spread (3)

Please, feel free to share your opinion in the comments area. If you liked this post, you can share it with your friends and followers. Thank you.

1/15/15

Spread Feeder Cattle UV5 (2)

This is my entry in the spread Feeder Cattle UV5:


It looks like a very quiet spread in the last 10 years´ stacked chart :


You can read the reasons for this trade in this post: Spread Feeder Cattle UV5

1/12/15

Butterfly Lean Hogs MNQ 5 (3)

This Lean Hogs butterfly is getting closer to my sales area:


When we sell HE MNQ5 butterfly, we are expecting spread HE MN5 to be bearish and spread HE NQ5 to be bullish.

We may see these expectations in the Open Contracts Spectrum chart (Scarr Visual Trading).  I have drawn an arrow for each contract involved in this butterfly:

Click here to read the last related post about this Lean Hogs butterfly.

1/10/15

Wheat - Corn Spread (3)

Wheat - Corn futures spread (May 2015) made a nice move after it broke the earlier low.


I suggest placing the stop loss over the break line, and follow the move with a trailing stop.

Next monday, USDA will release Crop Production Report. showing production numbers for 2014 as well as supply and demand tables.

After logical volatility, the report can help this position in the Wheat - Corn futures spread.

Click here for the last related post about this spread.

1/9/15

Feeder Cattle Situation (2)

The 123 pattern worked very well in the Feeder Cattle futures continuous chart. Price almost touched lower support level.

Now, it is time to follow the probable head and shoulder formation:


Click to check Feeder Cattle futures situation on November 10, 2014.

1/8/15

Spread Feeder Cattle UV5

In this occasion, I will focus on a distant operation in time: spread Feeder Cattle UV5 (September - October 2015).

This spread has behaved in a very stable form the last years. I selected 30 years in the following chart:


This Feeder Cattle spread has never moved out of the red range before mid-April. I think it is a good idea to trade it at the ends of the range.

Seasonality for this spread is bearish, so I am looking for short entries:


Click here for another Feeder Cattle spread.

1/7/15

Wheat - Corn Spread (2)

In this Wheat - Corn spread, I was waiting for a reversal sign to open a short position.

The reversal sign is very close, it has almost broken the neckline:


Seasonality for this spread is bearish.

This is the last related post: Wheat - Corn Spread

1/5/15

Butterfly Lean Hogs MNQ 5 (2)

This Lean Hogs butterfly was very close to my entry orders, but I could not jump in.

Chart from Scarr Visual Trading

Usually, this Lean Hogs butterfly moves within a range. So, we can search for short and long trades.

There is a lot of time left until June maturity, so this butterfly is still in my radar until april.

This is the last related post: Butterfly Lean Hogs MNQ 5

You may be interested in these posts:

Seasonal Futures Spreads, How to Trade them

Consejos para entrar en una mariposa de futuros

1/3/15

Spread Feeder Cattle HJ5

This Feeder Cattle spread formed with March and April maturities shows a strong bearish seasonality.


Chart from Seasonalgo

In this analysis, I have included 5 and 15 years seasonal trends.

These posts may interest you:

Cattle on Feed Report Dec. 19 2014

Feeder Cattle Situation