Last Cattle on Feed report did not clarify the situation in the Cattle complex:
1- Cattle inventory is 1% higher than a year ago. Not enough to consider it a bearish signal and in line with expectations.
2- Placed on feed during December was 8% lower than a year ago. Quite a bullish signal.
3- Last Cold Storage report (January 22) showed a greater amount of frozen beef (+11%) over last month. A bearish signal for closest Live Cattle maturities.
Main data on Cattle on Feed report January 23, 2015:
Cold Storage report (January 22, 2015):
Anyway, my vision about Live Cattle is more bullish than bearish. Take a look at the number of Cattle placed since October:
Cattle placed in feedlots has been lower in 2014 than in 2013. And 2014 was a very bullish year for Live Cattle.
To complicate things, it seems like large traders are closing their long positions in Live Cattle:
To complicate things, it seems like large traders are closing their long positions in Live Cattle:
Take a look at my comments about the Cattle on Feed report, December 19, 2014
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